World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout be between 5.8 million and 6.2 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbd4f0f2a99ccea96442a8f0841a75f9a107531662208885e8325b1d1c4dfe66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 2c | 1,958$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 2c | 1,047$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 11c | 1,044$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc643…07cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,010$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…1787backed Yes | 7c | 944.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 39c | 438.88$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 16c | 415.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 15c | 293.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 33c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 12c | 157.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5701…6d2abacked Yes | 11c | 138.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 134.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d5…709bbacked Yes | 42c | 119.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029b…5937backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 45c | 109.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked No | 79c | 106.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 60c | 90.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 69.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 41c | 58.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…0ac1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8450…b5a9backed Yes | 26c | 47.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…80d9backed Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout be between 5.8 million and 6.2 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?this page
- Will turnout be at least 6.6 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?No won
- Will turnout be between 4.6 million and 5.0 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?No won
- Will turnout be between 5.0 million and 5.4 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?No won
- Will turnout be between 5.4 million and 5.8 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?No won
- Will turnout be between 6.2 million and 6.6 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?Yes won
- Will turnout be less than 4.6 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.