Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff6ce89667f00fd18d3cd3e8d5396f05567bc40f2f4c21e52834ab3ec06da7e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 3c | 466.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…1c53backed No | 4c | 343.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 265.24$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 25c | 259.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.18 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 29c | 228.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.97 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 213.96$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 21c | 168.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 76c | 168.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 164.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 53c | 161.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 159.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 13c | 151.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…d5ebbacked No | 80c | 125.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 15c | 110.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 102.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 93.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 20c | 89.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 89.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 78c | 89.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 20c | 88.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 77.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 72c | 76.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 36c | 71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 76c | 65.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 47.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 24c | 42.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 63c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 69c | 36.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 36.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…e4ecbacked Yes | 58c | 34.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…229fbacked No | 53c | 30.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a95…2d3ebacked Yes | 47c | 30.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 49c | 30.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed No | 65c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…d1f8backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 76c | 29.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 27.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 23.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 79c | 21.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 15.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.