Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04a3458e8cca8f11352c0495a1d8db812baeb742eac86cd1a75e6fd2a1fc701b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 4c | 4,752$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 555.3$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 332.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 310.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 72c | 280.22$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 35c | 250.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 236.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 41c | 230.45$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 25c | 202.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 202.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 57c | 158.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 45c | 146.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 142.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 128.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 74c | 117.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 117.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 43c | 113.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 108.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 104.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 36c | 104.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked Yes | 34c | 100.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 39c | 97.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 95.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 93.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 87.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…b50ebacked Yes | 37c | 86.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 85.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 63c | 84.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 79.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 76.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 64c | 76.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 76.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 67c | 73.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 64.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…1fafbacked Yes | 46c | 63.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 64c | 62.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 54.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 37c | 50.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 61c | 48.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 48.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4a…5800backed No | 71c | 41.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 37c | 41.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 53c | 41.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 37c | 39.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…feb2backed Yes | 39c | 38.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 36.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 60c | 34.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 34.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 37c | 31.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 30.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…d1f8backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 34c | 29.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 61c | 29.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 40c | 28.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 68c | 25.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…bfa6backed No | 77c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…b89cbacked No | 79c | 20.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…45c3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 69c | 17.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 16.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 79c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.