NHL · resolved market
AHL: Hartford Wolf Pack vs. Hershey Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff7edb2d44f7688648582c1d7eed26d333ece3feb203a0e5ac2c4c285defba0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hartford Wolf Packof Hartford Wolf Pack, Hershey Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 47c | 3,407$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.85 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Hershey Bears | 53c | 1,147$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.04 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 330$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.9 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Hershey Bears | 54c | 274.07$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…fba6backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 266.13$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 238$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Hershey Bears | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Hershey Bears | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 47c | 139$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Hershey Bears | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Hershey Bears | 54c | 76.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hershey Bears | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Hartford Wolf Pack | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…503bbacked Hershey Bears | 53c | 33.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 53c | 33.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hartford Wolf Pack | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.