Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff937ee8c4ead5fd35793ced2735da57292964d669c47c14a583549735518b76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f5e…e083backed Yes | 62c | 1,580$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 75c | 301.74$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 22c | 247.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 49c | 223.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca3…3efcbacked Yes | 70c | 196.61$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 46c | 181.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 178.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 144.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 77c | 138.38$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 24c | 111.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 78.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 72.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 48c | 61.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 63c | 58.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 58.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 30c | 58.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 42.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 53c | 37.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 35.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked No | 70c | 35.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 31c | 34.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 69c | 25.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 60c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 61c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 63c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 64c | 16.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 64c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.