Movies · resolved market
Will "Copshop" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffab0c5c41c7bc87382e3b0df9447fd5012d7b061c5bc4d5ac3a0e780d1de3d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed Yes | 5c | 2,350$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.66 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 10c | 800.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 73c | 782.96$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.07 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 33c | 730$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 14c | 695.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…bc38backed Yes | 4c | 512.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 5c | 467.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed No | 52c | 466.42$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.86 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 67c | 459$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed Yes | 31c | 315$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 69c | 315$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…5e90backed Yes | 9c | 310$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 67c | 271$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed Yes | 5c | 200.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 55c | 171.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…4890backed No | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 30c | 145.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 48c | 139.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 70c | 115.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 13c | 111.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…175bbacked Yes | 47c | 96.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 23c | 79.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 73c | 74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…88f5backed Yes | 48c | 42.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 34c | 38.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…db5ebacked No | 53c | 35.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…649abacked Yes | 41c | 35.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…5e49backed No | 51c | 25.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Copshop" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)this page
- Will "Kpop Demon Hunters" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "M3GAN 2.0" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "Overboard" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "Queen of Chess" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "The Investigation of Lucy Letby" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)No won
- Will "The Rip" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.