Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffba8f2078ef096df483e75b2122676929b394024fcb3433a1b8c591b6e1ece6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 1,039$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.9 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 25c | 456.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 79c | 453.81$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 80c | 358.86$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 16c | 349.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 6c | 312.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 263.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 16c | 202.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 178.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 14c | 165$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 21c | 153.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 76c | 151.87$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 141.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 14c | 137$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 78c | 128.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 485 | 46%223 W · 262 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 14c | 114.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 27c | 96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 67.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked No | 79c | 44.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 35.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…0b67backed No | 73c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 72cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 446 | 65.5%292 W · 154 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.