Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff090bd2f68f4ccc5eb5758032970e96208e6146da6a3bfa926833497644235f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 1,655$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.14 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 880.24$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.71 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 708.89$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.05 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 3c | 660$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 632.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.71 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 232.73$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 38c | 179.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 172.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 160.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 136.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 71c | 132$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 25c | 124.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 31c | 111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 110.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 91.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 68c | 90.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed Yes | 32c | 85.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 79.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 29c | 72.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 24c | 72.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 26c | 70.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 63.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 62.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 59.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 69c | 55.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 50.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 31c | 47.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 66c | 47.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 41.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 33c | 39.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 32.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 37c | 31.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…b785backed No | 62c | 28.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 862 | 30.7%265 W · 597 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 72c | 24.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 22.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 69c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 68c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 69c | 20.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453b…1764backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.