Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb5acacaac91d4db09f89ffb49b172e5debed0a3f6dee4a17f214950d67de86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,650$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.85 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 59c | 1,409$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.43 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 39c | 1,303$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.19 | 425 | 36.7%156 W · 269 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 1,100$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.3 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 736.63$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.85 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 38c | 537.28$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.6 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 525$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.28 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 457.91$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.31 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 71c | 313.93$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 59c | 310.24$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 725 | 42.2%306 W · 419 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 36c | 274.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.06 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 11c | 255$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 244.54$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.64 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 220.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.71 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 217.11$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 21c | 186.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 69c | 170.81$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 461 | 62.3%287 W · 174 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 58c | 156$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 146.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 62c | 144.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 144.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 138.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 72c | 137.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 136.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 124.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 64c | 122.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 52c | 118.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 52c | 116.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 63c | 114.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 59c | 106.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 62c | 96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 41c | 88.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 64c | 87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 57c | 84.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 64c | 76.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 71.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 55c | 69.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 378 | 56.3%213 W · 165 L | +31.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 46c | 68.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 39c | 63.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 60.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…c072backed No | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 62c | 56.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c7…0cfdbacked Yes | 41c | 55.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 54.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed Yes | 42c | 51.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 59c | 45.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…f561backed No | 61c | 44.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 68c | 42.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 62c | 40.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 68c | 39.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4077…01abbacked Yes | 37c | 39.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 50c | 37.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 162 | 45.7%74 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 37.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 65c | 37.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 72c | 36.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…3595backed Yes | 35c | 36.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 43c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…2ef1backed No | 62c | 33.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…dccbbacked Yes | 53c | 32.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 48c | 30.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 294 | 49%144 W · 150 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…7850backed Yes | 53c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 57c | 25.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b9…b589backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 24.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 78c | 23.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 79c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 291 | 67.7%197 W · 94 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…0b98backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…507cbacked No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 64c | 18.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…102ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.