Champions League · resolved market
Will Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffbce43efc379b81910f8d0a4f01e5f3662f31a7a3e4b7458404ff73a43efdf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb29…947abacked Yes | 11c | 3,200$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…1478backed Yes | 11c | 1,688$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 10c | 1,162$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 318 | 47.5%151 W · 167 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 10c | 971.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 10c | 665.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 11c | 620.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 338 | 44.7%151 W · 187 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da4…fb43backed Yes | 5c | 593.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 8c | 469$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 12c | 419$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 7.8%14 W · 165 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 12c | 287.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…1120backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Yes | 12c | 193.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Yes | 10c | 185.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 169.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…baf1backed Yes | 11c | 159.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 13c | 145$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 12c | 139.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 10c | 124$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…a93dbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-07-21?Yes won
- Will Larne FC win on 2026-07-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.