Champions League · resolved market
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-07-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ade8445e39affbec753f0ae870f329b0e59ec97bbe86de12bcd42942bf0576d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 10c | 10,648$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.17 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…1986backed No | 17c | 6,004$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 11c | 5,411$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.83 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 1c | 3,847$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 3,682$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.86 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 11c | 2,435$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.41 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 15c | 2,159$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.52 | 318 | 47.5%151 W · 167 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…3254backed No | 18c | 2,145$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…dcf1backed No | 16c | 2,119$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 13c | 1,923$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 13c | 1,923$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 14c | 1,755$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.65 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 14c | 1,614$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.77 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 16c | 1,335$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.21 | 338 | 44.7%151 W · 187 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…8a83backed No | 16c | 1,161$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 14c | 840.68$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 15c | 760.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.12 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 11c | 682.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 15c | 663.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 13c | 646.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 14c | 547.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed No | 11c | 520.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed No | 15c | 442.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 179 | 7.8%14 W · 165 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed No | 14c | 428.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…2aecbacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed No | 17c | 372.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 19c | 283.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 79c | 273.53$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked No | 16c | 260$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed No | 11c | 228.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 70c | 205.13$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 22c | 199$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 14c | 158.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 16c | 154.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 446 | 47.3%211 W · 235 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 26c | 147.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed No | 16c | 137.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed No | 11c | 122.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…4a1bbacked No | 21c | 116.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed No | 30c | 102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 381 | 42.8%163 W · 218 L | -22.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…a93dbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 71c | 89.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 15c | 87.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 13c | 84.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked No | 15c | 66.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…891bbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…91fdbacked Yes | 76c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed Yes | 79c | 24.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-07-21?this page
- Will Larne FC vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw?No won
- Will Larne FC win on 2026-07-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.