NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Pistons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffff3997a2d2f51e2400aa21ad777b8953c9afae42bc73b4393cd53880d65aa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Pistons | 13c | 10,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Pistons | 44c | 7,587$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,329.85 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Pistons | 6c | 6,192$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.52 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Pistons | 3c | 5,694$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.13 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Pistons | 29c | 3,898$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.29 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Pistons | 11c | 3,341$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.23 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Pistons | 10c | 3,092$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.98 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…fb79backed Celtics | 72c | 3,086$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.87 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Pistons | 12c | 2,515$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.83 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Pistons | 52c | 1,001$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.09 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Pistons | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…c635backed Pistons | 11c | 708$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Pistons | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Pistons | 14c | 675.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…8874backed Pistons | 51c | 500.54$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…a884backed Pistons | 39c | 410.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…ef54backed Pistons | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Pistons | 10c | 306.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…ab51backed Pistons | 52c | 253$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Pistons | 42c | 240.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Pistons | 8c | 240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked Pistons | 9c | 233.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef79…96dcbacked Pistons | 15c | 221.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…c157backed Pistons | 15c | 197.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a49…413fbacked Pistons | 13c | 190.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…dc5abacked Pistons | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…6a86backed Pistons | 73c | 172.73$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…3374backed Pistons | 24c | 164.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Celtics | 80c | 137.63$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed Celtics | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 243 | 36.2%88 W · 155 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a1…bababacked Pistons | 13c | 123.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Pistons | 19c | 114.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…1c70backed Celtics | 46c | 108.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…16c1backed Pistons | 30c | 101.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Pistons | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd123…4f07backed Pistons | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Pistons | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 930 | 41.9%390 W · 540 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…e49cbacked Pistons | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Pistons | 28c | 72.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 117 | 19.7%23 W · 94 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Celtics | 75c | 71.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…47e4backed Celtics | 37c | 65.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…0416backed Pistons | 19c | 54.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…9da7backed Pistons | 56c | 54.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed Pistons | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd59f…33e8backed Pistons | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Celtics | 65c | 30.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.