Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x000582c4c46cad81dd5f53f9d3991df47dd5c1f0f9de45389657b5f4f976c87e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 68c | 936.74$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.8 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 40c | 385$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.79 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 323.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 44c | 264.75$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 256.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 247.68$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 21c | 184.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 175.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…566cbacked Yes | 52c | 171.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 20c | 160.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 147$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 24c | 135.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 18c | 135.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 134.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…c4febacked Yes | 27c | 101.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 101.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 85.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 78.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 71.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 27c | 69.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 69.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 69.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 64.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 28c | 59.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 56.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 19c | 55.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 30c | 55.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 47.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 47.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 27c | 45.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 39.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 27c | 38.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 53c | 38.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 31c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 36.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 72c | 27.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 25.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 75c | 25.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 22.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed Yes | 71c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 78c | 14.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.