Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45c6c9c9c5b133be796d7b2ee8cb858c12fefa8bd7cebd492972487ef0f087d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 36c | 1,960$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.06 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 35c | 544.96$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.87 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 293$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 247.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 214$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 37c | 213.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.52 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 47c | 212.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 190$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 182.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 141.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 139.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 60c | 138.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 12c | 138.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 133.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 44c | 132.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 126.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 11c | 122$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 42c | 105.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 64c | 102.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 44c | 99.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 98.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 30c | 89.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 87.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 75.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 50.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 47.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 45.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 43.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 43.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 48c | 41.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…b302backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 38.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 36.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 33.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 33.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 30.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 30.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 56c | 26.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…f092backed No | 57c | 24.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 23.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Yes | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 18.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 55c | 18.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.