Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x001a52154181c21acb9bcc4999f386c20840a2fdce99e516f4a2aa07017f2bba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 19c | 3,328$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.88 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 2,333$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 10c | 2,141$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.52 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 2,108$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.25 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.97 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 19c | 520.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 28c | 233.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 67c | 180$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb340…1ad1backed Under | 80c | 158.75$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Under | 72c | 153.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 20c | 112.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acb…ddd3backed Under | 66c | 109.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 79c | 75.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 79c | 71.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 34c | 64.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 77c | 45.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Over | 24c | 44.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 80c | 39.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…89c6backed Under | 77c | 38.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 78c | 36.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 79c | 29.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 75cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…097ebacked Under | 67c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 68c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 77c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 77c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Under | 78c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)Hertha BSC won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 0.5Over won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.