Tennis · resolved market
Hangzhou Open: Yibing Wu vs Daniil Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00580be5275daf471d4d74afd23fc183e5b0a8fe638aadf53713f7bfdbf34b68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wuof Wu, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wu | 34c | 3,027$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.27 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Medvedev | 66c | 2,105$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.52 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Medvedev | 68c | 2,012$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.04 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Wu | 40c | 2,003$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.32 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Medvedev | 67c | 1,290$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Medvedev | 74c | 1,250$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Medvedev | 69c | 1,010$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.9 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Wu | 24c | 954.17$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.17 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Wu | 24c | 675.74$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.45 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Medvedev | 76c | 500$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Medvedev | 20c | 499.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Wu | 16c | 380$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.2 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked Medvedev | 72c | 379.34$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.59 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Medvedev | 69c | 290.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Medvedev | 73c | 272.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Medvedev | 70c | 221$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.36 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Medvedev | 21c | 209.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Medvedev | 73c | 198.59$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.97 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…9172backed Medvedev | 24c | 160.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Wu | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Medvedev | 75c | 150.2$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.36 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed Medvedev | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Medvedev | 67c | 144.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Medvedev | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Medvedev | 77c | 124.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wu | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wu | 25c | 98.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Wu | 24c | 82.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Medvedev | 69c | 70.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Medvedev | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Medvedev | 75c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Medvedev | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Medvedev | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Wu | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.