Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00599e9537224e2ba66b8888cda6d16667470ee5e75780caa6cf4ee7d9bea7f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 472.83$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 329.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 270.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…2005backed Yes | 23c | 131.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 125.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 33c | 109.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 33c | 103.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 99.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 35c | 85.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 76.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 31c | 72.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ab…00e9backed Yes | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 34c | 61.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 66c | 53.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 33c | 53.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 53.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 52.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 51.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 50.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 50.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed No | 65c | 49.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 44.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 40.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 32.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 31.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…07cabacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 66c | 25.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 70c | 22.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…5ae7backed No | 76c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.