Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5474c4b730fc41760a2f8f5ec27beb8b4876e8168d1dfbb7a4bd6ee6459d7ab6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 1,037$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 54c | 999.99$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.48 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 883.58$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 720$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.05 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 501.97$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 336.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 304$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.14 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 6c | 291.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.54 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 46c | 248.68$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 221.75$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 45c | 219.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 38c | 213.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.15 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 47c | 200.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 51c | 196.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 185.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.43 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 160.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 158.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 23c | 136.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 54c | 134.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 12c | 132.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 128.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 126.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 109.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 104.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 39c | 103.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 43c | 102.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 99.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 91.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 73c | 82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…0e64backed Yes | 36c | 76.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 75.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 54c | 74.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 71.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…85d5backed Yes | 17c | 70.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 57c | 59.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 56.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 61c | 53.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 39c | 43.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…16b2backed Yes | 38c | 42.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 41.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 51c | 39.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 39.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 39.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 38c | 38.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 41c | 36.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 35.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 60c | 33.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 63c | 32.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 26.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 63c | 26.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 62c | 23.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 46c | 23.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 68c | 22.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 21.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 49c | 20.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 80c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.