TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x46f1…701fbacked No57c1,037$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.52,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed No54c999.99$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.481,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes46c883.58$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.221,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes41c720$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.051,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes68c501.97$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.626,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes26c336.88$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.658,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No53c304$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.142,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes6c291.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.544712.8%6 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes46c248.68$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.2986949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No54c221.75$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.751,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4338…f330backed Yes45c219.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.895318.9%10 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes38c213.14$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1563323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes47c200.15$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.1336150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fad…1a08backed Yes51c196.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.126758.2%39 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes9c185.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4396015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c160.2$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c158.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes43c139.53$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5382742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes23c136.74$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2730442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No54c134.14$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4446232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes12c132.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3814919.5%29 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No53c128.48$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.722,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes39c126.08$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.424,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No52c109.91$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Yes46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.714945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No64c104.92$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes39c103.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4259144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes43c102.93$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6719137.2%71 W · 120 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6223941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5642547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.991,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No55c99.72$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.14,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No64c91.31$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.612,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c2…6b76backed No73c82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.868068.8%55 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa621…0e64backed Yes36c76.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.211330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c75.39$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No54c74.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No53c71.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.171,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b73…85d5backed Yes17c70.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No57c59.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.154253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No66c56.6$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.611,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No61c53.76$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7413959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed Yes39c43.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9251156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50dc…16b2backed Yes38c42.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.22450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+46.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No63c41.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.971,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.23,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85aa…691bbacked No51c39.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.382259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No57c39.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.612,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No63c39.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.712,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes38c38.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3187437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ac…a769backed Yes48c38.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb430…efc9backed Yes41c36.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.888231.7%26 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes36c35.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.012,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes43c34.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.831,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes60c33.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.561,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb89b…1a22backed Yes63c32.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.119783.5%81 W · 16 L+26.5wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+58.5%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes43c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3725560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No58c26.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.471,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked No63c26.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7212453.2%66 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No62c23.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b8…2202backed Yes46c23.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.662846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9518…6c1ebacked No68c22.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9810671.7%76 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No63c21.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.641,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c3f…bc25backed No61c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.814761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes49c20.83$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6712238.5%47 W · 75 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.564,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1192761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1528742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.227852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2517759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…ea22backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64847.9%23 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes80c14.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.861,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.