Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00622b4e820b2936c196a47581e9e8335a87489e5dc61a57b493d6a426713475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 467.72$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…5a85backed Yes | 73c | 300.97$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 18c | 153$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 150.73$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 134.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 133.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 130.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 22c | 110.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…2e9ebacked No | 77c | 106.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…147abacked Yes | 20c | 96.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 27c | 92.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 90.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 26c | 89.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 30c | 86.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 27c | 82.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 59c | 77.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 76.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 32c | 72.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 69.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 35c | 67.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 29c | 66.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 30c | 65.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed No | 71c | 59.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 74c | 59.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 54.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 27c | 52.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 65c | 49.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 22c | 45.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 26c | 45.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 43.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 27c | 38.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 37.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 36.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 36.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…8772backed Yes | 51c | 33.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 43c | 33.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 72c | 33.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 32.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 31.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 68c | 31.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…442bbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed No | 53c | 20.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 72c | 19.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed No | 76c | 19.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 78c | 17.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 72c | 14.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 77c | 13.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 78c | 13.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 78c | 13.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.