Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x006c3b1e44c63f089defe4cfa8030101c84607b9eb6165b553e521d265b54760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 30c | 894.72$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.15 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…7d5abacked No | 34c | 721.51$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 63c | 475.89$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.44 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 56c | 432.96$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.46 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 40c | 357.11$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.44 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 68c | 337.34$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.15 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 307.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 288.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.01 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 8c | 272.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 42c | 208.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 44c | 188.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.03 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 60c | 171.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 15c | 170.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.13 | 526 | 50.2%264 W · 262 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 165.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 66c | 154.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 375 | 50.7%190 W · 185 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd6…b33cbacked No | 36c | 131.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 37c | 130$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed No | 40c | 125.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 121.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 56c | 121$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 105.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 105$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 3.5%18 W · 498 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 44c | 93.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 57c | 92.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 54c | 92.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 58c | 88.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…5bf3backed Yes | 61c | 84.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 57c | 78.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 75.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 41c | 72.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 24c | 71.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 378 | 56.3%213 W · 165 L | +31.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 70.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 26c | 64.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 344 | 58.7%202 W · 142 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 24c | 60.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 260 | 61.5%160 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 42c | 51.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 56c | 50.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 38c | 50.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 46.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 40c | 45.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 29c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2514…ad27backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 44c | 37.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 73c | 32.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 64c | 31.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 57c | 27.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…fe0bbacked Yes | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed Yes | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 26.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 64c | 26.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6d…7a04backed Yes | 72c | 21.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 294 | 49%144 W · 150 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 67c | 16.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…faadbacked Yes | 63c | 16.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…6114backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed Yes | 72c | 15.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 78c | 13.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.