Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecbfd50a4593a9418b4b6b97f420e3c0a077196df8afdeb3da52f2316fdeca25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 722.46$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.87 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 363.01$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.28 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 342.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 22c | 131$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.23 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 65c | 119.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 47 | 97.9%46 W · 1 L | +25.0wins | +0.53per pick | 45cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 89+0.35 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 109.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 104.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 94.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 93.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 75.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 25c | 73.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Yes | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 23c | 66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…019fbacked Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 45cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 64.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 56.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 67c | 52.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +19.6wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 77c | 32.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 80c | 25.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 25.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 23.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 22.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 18.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 18.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…38aebacked Yes | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…b1f2backed No | 76c | 13.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.