MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00c21091cce356c5ef90cc8969a0f1b33a1deeaf1818d6b0991c0118da6799c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 2,884$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 2,206$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.88 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 2,091$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 1,660$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.92 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 1,295$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.54 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 996$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.96 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 969.88$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 421.52$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 357.24$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.91 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…7df6backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 347.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 275.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 172.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Atlanta Braves | 23c | 142$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 92.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 81.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0851…06d3backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 77.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Atlanta Braves | 67c | 66.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 38.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 70c | 30.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 24.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 24.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 24.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 22.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 17.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.