Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00ca208dce8758a22170e58d403c6ac1da60b8ec922d51ae34c858008fd942d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 61c | 412.09$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 391.49$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.48 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 369.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 267.29$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.81 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 35c | 262.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.63 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 32c | 236.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.98 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 42c | 227.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…03adbacked Yes | 45c | 211.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 207.95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 205.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 199.98$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 191.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 163.24$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.77 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 154.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 30c | 147.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 141.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 137.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 30c | 127.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 105.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 34c | 91.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 87.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 17c | 83.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 77.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 17c | 73.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 72.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 31c | 63.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 75c | 57.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 53.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 34c | 53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 54c | 50.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 47.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 40c | 45.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 42.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 41.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 37.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 59c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 27.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 23.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 21.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.