Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00dfb2edb19efbe306d8672605931c9651b29e4a1d89a18d406eaa155dacba16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 1,462$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.14 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 3c | 1,148$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 1,017$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 756.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 267.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 12c | 102.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 92.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 72.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 79c | 63.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 59.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 66c | 58.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 51.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 72c | 50.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 20c | 50.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 49.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 59c | 45.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 36.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 74c | 36.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 45c | 33.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 74c | 32.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e0…3adbbacked Yes | 38c | 26.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 79c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 64c | 19.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 17.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.