NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bengals (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0117b8df910bbcbaac0da6b6813d117478a00966b1333dc3d35ff34b56c5be93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brownsof Bengals, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Browns | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Bengals | 48c | 20,000$9,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,500 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Bengals | 46c | 14,000$6,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,440 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Browns | 53c | 8,085$4,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Browns | 53c | 7,757$4,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,655.27 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Bengals | 48c | 7,270$3,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,489.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Browns | 54c | 6,553$3,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,014.38 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0930…0d60backed Browns | 54c | 6,000$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bengals | 47c | 3,227$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.02 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Browns | 53c | 3,019$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.87 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Bengals | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Bengals | 48c | 2,550$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.49 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bengals | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Bengals | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Bengals | 48c | 1,700$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.5 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Bengals | 47c | 1,600$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Bengals | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Browns | 53c | 852.62$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.93 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Browns | 52c | 767.75$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.52 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Browns | 53c | 750$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bengals | 47c | 705.06$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.15 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Bengals | 48c | 660.42$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.79 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb263…6275backed Bengals | 47c | 647.62$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.38 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…73b7backed Bengals | 48c | 488.13$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.3 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Browns | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Bengals | 45c | 363.64$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.64 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Bengals | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Browns | 53c | 227.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bengals | 46c | 217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Browns | 52c | 209$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Browns | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Browns | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Bengals | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Browns | 53c | 189$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Browns | 63c | 143$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +12.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bengals | 48c | 112$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…80a2backed Browns | 53c | 106.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Bengals | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Bengals | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Browns | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bengals | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…a70abacked Browns | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Browns | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Browns | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Browns | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Bengals | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Bengals | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156f…6887backed Browns | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Bengals | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…7d76backed Bengals | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +115%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Bengals | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…94d4backed Browns | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Bengals | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Bengals | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Browns | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Browns | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Browns | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Browns | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Bengals | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bengals (-5.5)this page
- Bengals vs. BrownsBengals won
- Bengals vs. Browns: O/U 47.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.