TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Phillies vs. Blue Jays

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blue Jaysof Phillies, Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$311,754
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$308,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,754 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e16…c743backed Phillies52c192,344$100,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,018.8830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Blue Jays48c191,382$91,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,518.6411153.2%59 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa94…86bcbacked Phillies52c30,703$15,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,965.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc653…5762backed Blue Jays48c29,811$14,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,501.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Phillies51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,199.7727948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Blue Jays49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,10041850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9570…398dbacked Blue Jays50c9,999$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,999.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4be…db5cbacked Phillies50c9,996$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,99820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jays58c6,692$3,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.299,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Phillies0c5,721$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.668762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blue Jays48c4,456$2,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.382,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Blue Jays49c4,324$2,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,205.221,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Phillies51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04099149.9%495 W · 496 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcd…6bddbacked Phillies20c3,551$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70017558.9%103 W · 72 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Blue Jays49c2,714$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.731,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Phillies52c2,200$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14421941.1%90 W · 129 L-19.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Phillies1c2,110$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.14754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcce…136abacked Phillies34c2,077$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70029240.8%119 W · 173 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Phillies52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04020150.2%101 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb8…74b8backed Phillies52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0403452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c40…5f2cbacked Blue Jays48c1,995$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.392050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Phillies36c1,809$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.5688549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f8…6713backed Blue Jays56c1,799$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.674261.9%26 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Phillies1c1,300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Blue Jays48c1,226$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.41,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Blue Jays48c1,224$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.6333349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Blue Jays49c1,176$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.5826453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Blue Jays47c1,122$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.5797950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Blue Jays69c1,101$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.261,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee27…3fa1backed Phillies54c1,100$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Phillies49c1,011$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025835.3%91 W · 167 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Blue Jays49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Phillies1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025511.8%30 W · 225 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd687…4faabacked Phillies2c996.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+62.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Blue Jays48c934.37$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.8749650.2%249 W · 247 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Phillies9c928$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.161,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…838fbacked Phillies51c923$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.731553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c43…1f64backed Blue Jays49c923$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.73966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+32.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf187…16c0backed Blue Jays48c891.98$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62b2…85d5backed Phillies51c799.94$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.971233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-52.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Phillies50c633.5$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.731,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1de…5834backed Phillies6c623.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick17cpaid+486.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Phillies52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Blue Jays48c458.02$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.5324450%122 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a27…fe44backed Phillies19c438.46$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.178842%37 W · 51 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+42.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Blue Jays49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1638455.7%214 W · 170 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Phillies52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20892754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Blue Jays78c388.76$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.644,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Phillies53c380.91$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Phillies15c380$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5723938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b66…7554backed Blue Jays49c378.45$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.215459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc3b…f625backed Phillies6c350$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207935.4%28 W · 51 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+63.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Phillies8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013946.8%65 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f2…d0e3backed Phillies51c220.79$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6814951.7%77 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Blue Jays48c208.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.671,44550%723 W · 722 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Blue Jays49c202.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.32,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Blue Jays50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1fd…af0dbacked Blue Jays50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004652.2%24 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Blue Jays49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1023,30346.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2c…284cbacked Phillies51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028453.9%153 W · 131 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa468…816ebacked Phillies52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009349.5%46 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Blue Jays48c190.63$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.137554.7%41 W · 34 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+26.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Blue Jays49c184.09$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.899448.9%46 W · 48 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Phillies52c172.62$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8916055.6%89 W · 71 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Blue Jays48c131.26$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6585047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blue Jays48c119.23$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621,15349.2%567 W · 586 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Phillies53c114$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4212451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Blue Jays48c113.77$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.161827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3c7…3458backed Blue Jays49c104.16$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x415c…0536backed Phillies52c102.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebba…4de7backed Blue Jays49c101.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.87450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c1…6428backed Phillies52c101.35$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Phillies53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5325416.1%41 W · 213 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5cf…e4bcbacked Blue Jays50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503661.1%22 W · 14 L+5.9wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+31.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7e3a…21a7backed Blue Jays49c98.96$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd50a…3018backed Phillies52c98.71$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.33425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeed1…d086backed Phillies51c97.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.27655.3%42 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a39…f057backed Phillies52c96.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa30a…37afbacked Phillies52c96.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1550%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51b1…de7ebacked Phillies52c95.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfffe…1df7backed Phillies53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503941%16 W · 23 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda93…16dfbacked Blue Jays49c93.14$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf46…3c69backed Blue Jays49c92.51$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.18450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Blue Jays66c91.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5743250.7%219 W · 213 L+10.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb432…e207backed Blue Jays49c91.35$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…ff08backed Blue Jays49c89.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…2c06backed Phillies52c89.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fdd…57ebbacked Blue Jays49c88.12$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.944100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Blue Jays49c87.76$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7623852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Blue Jays49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6349348.3%238 W · 255 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5957…75edbacked Phillies52c80.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7850%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Blue Jays54c80.09$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0812335%43 W · 80 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Blue Jays48c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.62,05053.8%1,103 W · 947 L+33.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f19…72d9backed Phillies50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4041649%204 W · 212 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49fa…2193backed Phillies52c71.15$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-42.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Blue Jays79c69.26$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.721,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Blue Jays48c65.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.031,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa698…e09fbacked Phillies17c65.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Blue Jays50c64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3218951.3%97 W · 92 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf391…73c3backed Blue Jays50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3029552.2%154 W · 141 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.