Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UC Davis Aggies vs. Cal Poly Mustangs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01497044f9e0df50cec88c039d9ee863af423a367126ec7a0dfa1080e38a6c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cal Poly Mustangsof UC Davis Aggies, Cal Poly Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 46c | 2,466$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.72 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 50c | 2,079$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.75 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UC Davis Aggies | 51c | 1,711$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.47 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked UC Davis Aggies | 50c | 1,142$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.76 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 21c | 758.71$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.5 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 46c | 748.14$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.06 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked UC Davis Aggies | 45c | 726.48$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.07 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed UC Davis Aggies | 50c | 657.36$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.6 | 158 | 61.4%97 W · 61 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed UC Davis Aggies | 52c | 566.7$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.68 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed UC Davis Aggies | 68c | 517$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.23 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed UC Davis Aggies | 77c | 358$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.92 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked UC Davis Aggies | 59c | 273.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 453 | 51.4%233 W · 220 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed UC Davis Aggies | 37c | 264$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…99bbbacked UC Davis Aggies | 21c | 242$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 25cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed UC Davis Aggies | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 36c | 220.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.47 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 32c | 186$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 70c | 143.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked UC Davis Aggies | 42c | 120.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 124 | 35.5%44 W · 80 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked UC Davis Aggies | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed UC Davis Aggies | 75c | 107.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UC Davis Aggies | 52c | 97.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed UC Davis Aggies | 53c | 76.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 120 | 34.2%41 W · 79 L | -13.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 47c | 63.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 68c | 57.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 48c | 55.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a14…2513backed UC Davis Aggies | 36c | 55.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed UC Davis Aggies | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…f88fbacked UC Davis Aggies | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 26c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed UC Davis Aggies | 62c | 29.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed UC Davis Aggies | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…e9f8backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 49c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…e011backed UC Davis Aggies | 51c | 20.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e13…8bfebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 49c | 20.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 74c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked UC Davis Aggies | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 225 | 52.9%119 W · 106 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed UC Davis Aggies | 65c | 19.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UC Davis Aggies vs. Cal Poly Mustangsthis page
- Spread: UC Davis Aggies (-1.5)Cal Poly Mustangs won
- UC Davis Aggies vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 165.5Under won
- UC Davis Aggies vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 166.5Under won
- UC Davis Aggies vs. Cal Poly Mustangs: O/U 168.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.