TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,947

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,869 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under44c2,528$1,105 inLost-$1,105.2910,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under44c1,711$748 inLost-$747.814,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over58c1,100$638 inWon+$462.081,94753.1%1,033 W · 914 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over50c550$275 inWon+$27594734.4%326 W · 621 L-0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over58c508.62$295 inWon+$213.621,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over43c500$215 inWon+$2851,85544%817 W · 1,038 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over49c244.9$120 inWon+$124.948145.3%218 W · 263 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under51c239.9$122 inLost-$122.354,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Over58c226.5$131 inWon+$95.137147.9%34 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…9324backed Over40c165.33$66 inWon+$99.24546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over36c63.03$23 inWon+$40.412,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Over58c55.17$32 inWon+$23.1731849.7%158 W · 160 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Over58c50$29 inWon+$2113545.2%61 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Under65c24.62$16 inLost-$166660.6%40 W · 26 L+7.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under65c23.22$15 inLost-$15.091,21250%606 W · 606 L+5.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Over58c20.33$12 inWon+$8.5420156.2%113 W · 88 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73bd…b576backed Under67c14.97$10 inLost-$10.0327557.1%157 W · 118 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.