MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd466adda2a53384a72e62300c7e3306609a21c1313aacc63b3787640a18d4bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 14,718$6,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,075.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 10,292$4,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,441.24 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 55c | 9,993$5,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,496.1 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…d2f0backed Under | 80c | 3,587$2,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.37 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 1,309$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 1,305$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 54c | 1,056$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.98 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 6c | 943$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 70c | 679.87$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.06 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 541.82$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 74c | 515.99$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 36c | 327$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 53c | 314.72$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.92 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 57c | 314.51$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 51c | 276.1$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.73 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 8c | 246$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 238.02$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 7c | 234.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 57c | 227.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.55 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 76c | 148.24$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 44c | 137.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 58c | 128.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…15a6backed Over | 30c | 122.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 115$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 74c | 112.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 57c | 96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 43c | 90.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 45c | 89.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Under | 62c | 87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 49c | 84.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 50c | 72.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 45c | 63.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 45c | 57.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 50c | 54.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 49.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 58c | 47.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 76c | 46.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 59c | 46.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 42c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 44c | 39.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 50c | 36.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…1ea7backed Over | 58c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 77c | 30.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 79c | 26.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 44c | 24.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 45c | 22.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Under | 72c | 15.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…e4d0backed Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.