MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e0427da599db8034565902a769a94c4f01a6a7ee8a112c9598fa1c6f09227c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe83b…2d16backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 4,092$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 4,079$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 3,650$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.92 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 3,632$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.15 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 2,795$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 1,345$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.35 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 1,096$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 993.75$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 982.85$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 792.5$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 785.37$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.05 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 551.59$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.01 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 529.94$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.04 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 425.12$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 400$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 320.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.26 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 314.5$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 305.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.57 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago Cubs | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 244.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 239$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 166$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 157.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 154.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 154.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 145.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 108.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 81.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 60.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Chicago Cubs | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 38.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 37.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 33.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 31.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Chicago Cubs | 75c | 30.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 78c | 27.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 22.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.