MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f6593fec35f88df2bec52c2b8124084e43908eb7321d8a9510636ba82872f2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 25,309$8,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,951.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…b2f4backed Under | 65c | 23,221$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,221.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Over | 39c | 5,775$2,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,252.25 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 61c | 3,529$2,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 63c | 2,500$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 1,532$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 23c | 1,297$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…345cbacked Over | 37c | 1,270$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 38c | 1,053$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.14 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 65c | 728.45$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.09 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 63c | 539$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 62c | 529.69$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 62c | 512$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.56 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 63c | 410.86$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.02 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 74c | 309.67$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 64c | 262.73$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 65c | 194.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 63c | 164$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 65c | 157.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 40c | 120.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 80c | 83.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 65c | 81.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 39c | 63.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Over | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 36c | 57.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 60c | 42.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 74c | 40.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…017dbacked Over | 37c | 34.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Under | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Under | 65c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 63c | 15.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.