Tennis · resolved market
Sao Leopoldo: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Guido Justo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x016a8b945dd8df33791ebfdd20da5f6ecca4bcc94651ef11a5670658e2d19638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Manuel La Sernaof Juan Manuel La Serna, Guido Justo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 47c | 4,654$2,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.42 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 78c | 2,731$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.51 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Guido Justo | 39c | 2,225$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.89 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 54c | 1,694$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.29 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 53c | 1,634$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.33 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Guido Justo | 62c | 1,535$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.84 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Guido Justo | 33c | 1,341$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.44 | 246 | 38.2%94 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Guido Justo | 32c | 1,068$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.44 | 302 | 25.8%78 W · 224 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Guido Justo | 28c | 863.17$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.41 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Guido Justo | 35c | 846.96$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.11 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Guido Justo | 50c | 845.93$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.53 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 30c | 810.87$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.05 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Guido Justo | 50c | 776.95$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.48 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Guido Justo | 35c | 755.54$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.57 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 59c | 515.88$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.52 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Guido Justo | 43c | 481.38$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.01 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 60c | 448.84$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.57 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Guido Justo | 70c | 423.48$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.41 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 46c | 395.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.31 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 75c | 392.14$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 370 | 71.9%266 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Guido Justo | 37c | 358.48$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.86 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e9…a86ebacked Guido Justo | 55c | 354.19$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.59 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 73c | 304.88$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Guido Justo | 67c | 292.6$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Guido Justo | 44c | 280.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 506 | 44.9%227 W · 279 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…9200backed Guido Justo | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 55c | 265.87$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 61c | 250.16$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.84 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e69…1a91backed Guido Justo | 21c | 220.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 53c | 205.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…9c4cbacked Guido Justo | 40c | 194.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Guido Justo | 23c | 184.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Guido Justo | 53c | 147.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 484 | 53.7%260 W · 224 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Guido Justo | 48c | 140.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 1,132 | 50.3%569 W · 563 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Guido Justo | 35c | 138.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 1,671 | 53%885 W · 786 L | +44.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Guido Justo | 45c | 123.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Guido Justo | 22c | 108.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 65c | 108.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Guido Justo | 19c | 105.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Guido Justo | 35c | 96.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 515 | 39.8%205 W · 310 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Guido Justo | 50c | 90.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783f…8f90backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 25c | 80.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 128 | 31.3%40 W · 88 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…6d2abacked Guido Justo | 24c | 79.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 353 | 44.8%158 W · 195 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 53c | 65.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Guido Justo | 56c | 62.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 502 | 59%296 W · 206 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 39c | 58.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 37c | 52.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 36c | 51.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Guido Justo | 61c | 49.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 152 | 48.7%74 W · 78 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…dfb9backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 39c | 49.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 242 | 49.2%119 W · 123 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Guido Justo | 36c | 48.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 39c | 45.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 62c | 40.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Guido Justo | 66c | 36.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Guido Justo | 61c | 36.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Guido Justo | 31c | 35.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Guido Justo | 63c | 32.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…fcd8backed Guido Justo | 50c | 31.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 244 | 60.7%148 W · 96 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Guido Justo | 45c | 29.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Guido Justo | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…d2c8backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 58c | 29.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 51c | 28.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 849 | 63.1%536 W · 313 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…15f7backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 37c | 27.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 41c | 27.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 541 | 41.4%224 W · 317 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 24.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Guido Justo | 59c | 23.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Guido Justo | 59c | 21.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…13dbbacked Guido Justo | 56c | 20.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Guido Justo | 54c | 19.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e42…8f95backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 66c | 15.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sao Leopoldo: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Guido Justothis page
- Juan Manuel La Serna vs. Guido Justo: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Serna vs. Justo: Match O/U 23.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.