World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x016cb1266afe7f97d9e1a21812317969b61c38acfd9a276945cd3b3200bbad40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 792.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 3c | 758.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 563.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 396.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 373.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 297.11$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 293.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 246.72$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 18c | 217$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 197.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 9c | 188.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 6c | 180.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 10c | 159.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 159.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 10c | 158.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 8c | 154.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 10c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 115.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 10c | 105.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 13c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 28c | 89.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 83.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…85a1backed Yes | 14c | 80.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 73.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 58.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 57.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 56.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…3bddbacked Yes | 24c | 51.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 51.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 75c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 36.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 35.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 33.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 75c | 32.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644a…356dbacked No | 75c | 30.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked No | 76c | 26.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 21.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed No | 75c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 18.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 72c | 15.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…20d1backed No | 73c | 13.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.