TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,082
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,082 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed No58c1,473$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c1,460$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.7210043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No6c1,343$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8223723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c887.73$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.8232748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No54c437.85$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.8614521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93d1…5250backed No51c339.92$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes47c322.22$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.227623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No49c300.23$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.2428558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19210243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes36c300$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.442955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c293.31$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4640648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes47c290.85$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.072425%6 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No64c273$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.7211839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No8c269.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.274831.3%15 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed No40c207.56$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.56922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No60c204.09$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.251050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.269337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No63c198$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.742718.5%5 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-66%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes44c174.91$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.184555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes44c174.86$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6218158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed Yes35c172$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.041566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+61.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No53c155.91$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.878856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c155$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7935258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes53c155$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.210629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No64c150$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No12c149.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6352850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes42c148$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8414454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No61c147.26$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9412055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No43c145.46$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1921844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes37c135.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.134436.4%16 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes45c134.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.614231%13 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No41c130.1$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4712055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c129.83$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.913646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed Yes53c123.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.593351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9a…edf6backed No10c123.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.191216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-44.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes36c120.94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.735843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes49c118.13$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.636333.3%21 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fc3…03f8backed Yes36c111.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c110.57$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3718035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x384f…58adbacked Yes60c110$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+209%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c108.06$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.81,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes63c105.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.621546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No63c105.26$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.311442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No47c105.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.122166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+42.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes52c100.24$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.211053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd503…325fbacked Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.38944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes53c99.64$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.365644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Yes62c96.87$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.87850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No43c94.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6322355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No47c91.38$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7223551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes61c89.3$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3918342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes48c86.6$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2516934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes62c83$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8713357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No59c82$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.784240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes60c80.42$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2912640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes39c77.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.924452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6784…7565backed Yes44c77.68$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc8…7b89backed Yes40c75.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.762450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No46c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.522152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No58c74.82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.05825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-58.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes66c72.02$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5823044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes37c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.12630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed Yes43c69.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.314266.7%28 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes36c67.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.028865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes47c67.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.612040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes41c67.15$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.622045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No58c66.56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.516241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No53c65.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6313155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes80c65.15$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1314753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No49c65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.852161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes42c63.73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.226632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No41c62.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.62759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c60.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8144428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3303…73e3backed No64c60.6$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.78425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes77c60.53$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0711636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.63046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes58c59.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.971650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x355d…1052backed No64c59.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No60c57.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.216238.7%24 W · 38 L-10.7wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-29.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No57c51.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1911161.3%68 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No62c50.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.231861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No55c50.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.58844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51560%9 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291090%9 W · 1 L+4.4wins+0.44per pick46cpaid+98.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No49c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.31656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes48c49.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8910733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes39c49.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4814827%40 W · 108 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa532…cc03backed Yes44c49.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.521258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x296e…0b9abacked Yes44c49.3$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No59c47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7314351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No25c46.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7822111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes43c46.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6413348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes49c46.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.547248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes34c46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.365234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No27c45.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4516755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes31c44.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.997236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.