World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e1891338b55a14e6b85bd8bc73750a5ee313c6591166789065c73822b510fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 58c | 1,473$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,460$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.72 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 6c | 1,343$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 887.73$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.82 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 54c | 437.85$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.86 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…5250backed No | 51c | 339.92$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 47c | 322.22$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.22 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 300.23$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.24 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 36c | 300$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.44 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 293.31$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 47c | 290.85$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.07 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 273$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 8c | 269.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 40c | 207.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 60c | 204.09$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 63c | 198$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 44c | 174.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 174.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.62 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 35c | 172$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.04 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 155.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 155$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 53c | 155$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 149.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 42c | 148$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 147.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 145.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 45c | 134.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.61 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 41c | 130.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 129.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 53c | 123.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed No | 10c | 123.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 120.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 118.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…03f8backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 110.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…58adbacked Yes | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +209%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 108.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 63c | 105.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 63c | 105.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 105.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 52c | 100.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 53c | 99.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 62c | 96.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 94.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 91.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 61c | 89.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 48c | 86.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 62c | 83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 80.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 39c | 77.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 44c | 77.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed Yes | 40c | 75.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 58c | 74.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 72.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 43c | 69.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 36c | 67.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 47c | 67.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 67.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 66.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 65.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 80c | 65.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 63.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 41c | 62.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 60.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 64c | 60.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 77c | 60.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes | 58c | 59.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed No | 64c | 59.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 60c | 57.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 51.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 62c | 50.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 50.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 46cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 49.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 44c | 49.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 44c | 49.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 25c | 46.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 43c | 46.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 49c | 46.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 34c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 27c | 45.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 31c | 44.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.