World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c800e04b29c9bd5121031ce6584e05bf2bebb41c42121e54f989497b64f1827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 75c | 1,815$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,316$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed No | 74c | 843$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 448.97$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.32 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 331.72$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 18c | 318.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 32c | 316.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 30c | 305$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 28c | 300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 24c | 275.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 31c | 269$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 266.32$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 258.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 246.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 74c | 233.12$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 32c | 209.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 204.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 11c | 197$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 26c | 194$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…e06bbacked Yes | 43c | 191.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 185.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 177.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 177.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 176.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 172.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 155$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 19c | 149.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 26c | 144.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 142.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked No | 68c | 132.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 37c | 131$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 77c | 126.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 124.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 74c | 123.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 118.74$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 21c | 116.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 78c | 116.04$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…89bdbacked No | 60c | 115.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 19c | 113.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 18c | 110.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 109.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 101.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…abfbbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 40c | 98.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 26c | 97.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 88.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 34c | 83.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 25c | 80.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 80.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 78.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 78.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 75c | 75.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 73c | 74.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 68.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 17c | 67.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 78c | 66.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 64.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 60c | 64.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 78c | 64.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 63.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 79c | 63.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 37c | 57.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 69c | 56.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…8de9backed Yes | 42c | 56.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 28c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 40c | 54.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 61c | 54.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 76c | 53.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 34c | 52.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 26c | 45.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 78c | 39.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 38.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…1e43backed Yes | 34c | 38.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 34.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 32.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 68c | 30.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 41c | 28.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 76c | 27.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…61babacked No | 61c | 26.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 74c | 26.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 21.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 75c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.