Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x017cdaa19f46e0af77bdfdc33d37cc6b4991725b1393b0d5237769da92ac76fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 613.28$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 506.44$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 6c | 487.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.1 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 69c | 419.97$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.08 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 9c | 350.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.19 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 348.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 346.91$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 38c | 310.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.64 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 223.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 7c | 159.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.45 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 37c | 157.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 7c | 155.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 21c | 153.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 17c | 151.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.14 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 8c | 144.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.78 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 15c | 122.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 30c | 121.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…b574backed Yes | 18c | 102.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…56a8backed Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 13c | 100.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 50c | 91.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 32c | 59.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 23c | 55.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 50.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 45.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 51c | 34.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.