Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ef6db1795cf497e5d26a6dc91a6bdff253d818a2222e56adfdeed4137e7e75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 1,377$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 458.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 34c | 336.17$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 299$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 266.88$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 244.04$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 11c | 228.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 190.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 181.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 174$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 173.26$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 159.98$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 12c | 154.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…5905backed Yes | 10c | 134.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 28c | 132.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 68c | 125.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked Yes | 13c | 121.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…ef6bbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…5db6backed Yes | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 10c | 115.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 14c | 110.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 33c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 96.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…1dd7backed No | 73c | 90.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 76.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 66.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 65.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 51.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 25c | 48.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 32c | 43.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 65c | 38.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 34c | 37.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 32.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 31.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 32c | 30.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 30.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 65c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 68c | 26.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 25.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 25.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b4…6ec9backed No | 68c | 24.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 18.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed No | 69c | 18.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 69c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.