Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c45c4ccd4e20644fbbaeb14b0dbc72de16b7dc43dd7bd82a4e972a5d58a8f93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 79c | 2,488$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.02 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…ed32backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +581.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 62c | 1,123$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 63c | 679$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.47 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 632.95$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 26c | 580.82$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 567.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 509.48$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 38c | 500$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 71c | 496.14$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.3 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 5c | 401.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 74c | 400$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.31 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 34c | 347.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.58 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 27c | 331.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.48 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 26c | 330.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.77 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 68c | 296.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 37c | 289.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.86 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 39c | 283.34$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 29c | 277.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.82 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 258.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 36c | 233.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 32c | 223.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 34c | 220.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.58 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 23c | 195.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 63c | 193.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.56 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 178.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 37c | 177.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 169.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 168.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 38c | 168.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 76c | 164.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 73c | 156.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 71c | 141.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 57c | 136.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 38c | 134.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 78c | 131.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 32c | 129.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 124$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 123.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 35c | 121.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 29c | 119.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 38c | 112.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 35c | 110.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 70c | 110.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 34c | 108$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…4c85backed Yes | 72c | 101.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9929…0b40backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 41c | 97.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 66c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 34c | 89.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 39c | 87.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 63c | 81.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 61c | 81.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 62c | 81.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 34c | 78.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 65c | 76.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 71c | 75.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 80c | 75.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 71c | 70.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 57c | 66.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 55c | 65.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 56c | 62.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 36c | 61.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 39c | 61.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…8191backed No | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 59c | 58.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 60c | 56.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 72c | 53.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 52.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…05afbacked Yes | 62c | 51.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 63c | 47.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 33c | 46.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 70c | 44.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 56c | 44.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 31c | 42.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 61c | 40.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 40.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 34c | 39.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 38.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes | 59c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 41c | 34.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 32c | 31.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 41c | 29.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.