Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01858640dcc9485f41338ba9cb5250a62d76c0dbf86d940f25c79d85bd948d4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed No | 1c | 2,027$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 75c | 521.92$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.04 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 67c | 518.62$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.47 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 425.97$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…0b69backed Yes | 43c | 361.57$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 44c | 332.19$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 73c | 292.95$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 65c | 292.16$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 269.2$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 248.16$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.67 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 247.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 236.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 31c | 208.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 70c | 196.78$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 37c | 194.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.46 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 138.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 69c | 81.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 23c | 71.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b70…22ebbacked No | 75c | 65.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed No | 64c | 60.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 59.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 59.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 26c | 56.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 41c | 55.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 54.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 70c | 50.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 75c | 49.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 25c | 49.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 32c | 48.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 51c | 48.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 64c | 43.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 38c | 42.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ec…ac1cbacked No | 61c | 39.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 46c | 38.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 78c | 37.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked No | 75c | 37.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb50f…4842backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 74c | 30.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 37c | 27.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 64c | 25.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729d…4c8abacked No | 77c | 21.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 70c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 62c | 18.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 71c | 18.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 76c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.