Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2702d3472786b107f81ffce7a59353fd78fd9b33cc2d62dccde34746219bbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 1c | 2,052$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 465.34$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 397.87$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 280.73$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 22c | 227.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 216.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 197.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 38c | 122.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 30c | 121.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 68c | 102.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 17c | 81.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 37c | 73.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 55c | 67.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 64.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 54c | 61.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 58.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 60c | 51.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 69c | 49.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 43c | 47.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes | 23c | 45.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 42c | 44.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 41c | 40.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 47c | 40.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked No | 62c | 38.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 67c | 38.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 42c | 35.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ec…ac1cbacked Yes | 51c | 31.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 62c | 30.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 70c | 27.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 76c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 23.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 21.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 61c | 16.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.