Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x018baabdd614c78f663d3fafd765ac18314fceece919387877f12d9a1add17a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 15c | 9,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 12c | 3,049$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.91 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 6c | 1,401$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…1ba8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 11c | 578.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…635bbacked Yes | 11c | 549.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 12c | 539.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 12c | 499.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Yes | 12c | 408.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 15c | 330$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +167.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Yes | 13c | 178.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…b6c4backed Yes | 12c | 160.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…b09dbacked Yes | 13c | 154.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 11c | 149.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 65 | 13.8%9 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Yes | 13c | 132.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…9977backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 13c | 123.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 11c | 94.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e4…3f7dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-27?this page
- Will FC Porto vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.