Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0192ff9d71c41a2b01f6f79316b9acc35a61081e60b64960df39dcea88e48fc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef27…381bbacked Yes | 29c | 9,904$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,872.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 7,720$5,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.82 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…1187backed Yes | 29c | 6,603$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 5,316$3,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.95 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 71c | 5,000$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 4,312$3,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.6 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…6fc0backed No | 78c | 2,569$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.08 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked No | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 71c | 1,700$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 29c | 1,651$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.7 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Yes | 29c | 1,155$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…2040backed Yes | 29c | 990.38$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 666.86$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.49 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 72c | 611.15$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.17 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 78c | 605.78$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.22 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 72c | 568.07$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 19c | 500.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 28c | 484.79$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.74 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked No | 71c | 460$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 76c | 459.56$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 79c | 429.26$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 25c | 394.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe81e…3640backed Yes | 25c | 382$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Yes | 29c | 352.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Yes | 29c | 330.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 318.5$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…67f0backed Yes | 24c | 198.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 71c | 179.38$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 71c | 176$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 29c | 169.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 72c | 157.31$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 71c | 149.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 78c | 139.29$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 77c | 135.29$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 76c | 117.13$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 24c | 104.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 26c | 95.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yes | 29c | 92.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 89.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab7c…746dbacked Yes | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 29c | 66.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed No | 72c | 54.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 50.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 50.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe51…e909backed Yes | 29c | 48.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…4013backed No | 72c | 45.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked No | 72c | 45.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…17bdbacked No | 70c | 41.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed No | 72c | 40.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 27c | 37.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 36.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 71c | 31.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…9f58backed No | 72c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed No | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 75c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 71c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed No | 73c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.