MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01aec171cb1609141d7598221008fc82bb187346ec9d5cde2abc1c33a678d27c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 59c | 19,707$11,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,107.68 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 32c | 6,340$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.14 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 5,058$3,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 41c | 4,500$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Over | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 41c | 1,417$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 41c | 1,416$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.03 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Over | 42c | 1,302$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.04 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 1,283$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.82 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 59c | 995.14$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.16 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 59c | 950.46$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.07 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 36c | 897$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.55 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 41c | 844.89$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.17 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 43c | 844.19$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 41c | 709$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.69 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 58c | 605$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.1 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 57c | 500.36$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.15 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 41c | 491.14$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 482.57$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 40c | 393.22$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.14 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 57c | 376.15$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.75 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 42c | 320.1$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 289$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 268.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 252.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 59c | 229.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 69c | 199.14$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 77c | 176.25$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 31c | 154.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…43fdbacked Under | 69c | 146.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 42c | 133.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 41c | 117.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Over | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 332 | 28.3%94 W · 238 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 28c | 85.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 66c | 80.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 42c | 71.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 43c | 57.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 65c | 52.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…7b50backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…c9e5backed Under | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 41c | 47.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…db17backed Over | 30c | 45.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 41c | 42.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 38c | 41.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240c…4c62backed Over | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Over | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4a…4140backed Over | 41c | 33.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 40c | 30.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…c52cbacked Over | 46c | 29.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Under | 71c | 28.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 69c | 25.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 70c | 24.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 74c | 24.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…f826backed Under | 58c | 22.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 70c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 75c | 17.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.