MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c2c572b8247560754ca125efdb63796877721402763945a48984885784e2e61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 39c | 3,020$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.94 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Athletics | 70c | 2,203$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.15 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…2ac7backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 1,737$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Athletics | 37c | 1,350$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.5 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Athletics | 37c | 1,120$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.6 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Athletics | 38c | 1,054$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.68 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 925.66$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.92 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 40c | 798.24$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.69 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e00…ba80backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 725$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.75 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 69c | 611.12$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.45 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Athletics | 36c | 509.57$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Kansas City Royals | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Kansas City Royals | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Kansas City Royals | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Athletics | 38c | 374.5$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.5 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Kansas City Royals | 4c | 352.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Kansas City Royals | 7c | 320$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Athletics | 33c | 304.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.38 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Athletics | 33c | 304.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.38 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Athletics | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 203.68$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Athletics | 38c | 158.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 150.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Athletics | 36c | 128.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Athletics | 73c | 97.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Athletics | 71c | 90.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 45c | 76.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 68.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Athletics | 57c | 68.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Athletics | 38c | 66.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…8548backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 64.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 61.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Athletics | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Athletics | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Kansas City Royals | 47c | 35.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…c52cbacked Athletics | 71c | 33.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…f27abacked Athletics | 80c | 33.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Athletics | 66c | 17.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 15.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.