Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01b647e8ddf781b1747be42bf15bc23367b9a3e7c4ac1ee50a1b6d00d4cf6087
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb71b…cb2fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 4c | 3,906$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.78 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 3,726$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 1,941$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 1c | 1,873$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,401$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,021$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 8c | 950.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 2c | 851.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 12c | 668.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 5c | 641.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 6c | 599.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 74c | 568.78$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.14 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 527.61$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 12c | 520.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 483.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 434.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Yes | 4c | 394.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed Yes | 4c | 376.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 4c | 368$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 8c | 300.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 4c | 299.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 4c | 281.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 10c | 279.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…09a6backed Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…6611backed Yes | 13c | 250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5c…bcf3backed Yes | 11c | 189.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…6aa1backed Yes | 6c | 187.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 186.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 12c | 173.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 9c | 171.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 8c | 168$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 165.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 13c | 158.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 10c | 147.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…94b3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…f147backed Yes | 13c | 93.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…216cbacked No | 75c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 32.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 68c | 14.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.