Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f02106fe0df68f998f733bb40d225eea7d129c18c5712f3e957436488656828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 1,720$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,616$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 3c | 1,593$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…4fbcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,440$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,403$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,255$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 768.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 5c | 522.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 480.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 27c | 467.65$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.94 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 441.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 58c | 409.99$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 11c | 405.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 8c | 368$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 344.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 337.3$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 319.62$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 8c | 281.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 7c | 221.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 15c | 200.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 11c | 199.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 9c | 197.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 7c | 182.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 179.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…6aa1backed Yes | 16c | 174.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 171.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 76c | 166.67$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…6611backed Yes | 16c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 19c | 154.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 9c | 152.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 13c | 137.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 129.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked No | 80c | 125.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 12c | 122.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed No | 73c | 121.34$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 27c | 115.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 105.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 34c | 98.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 94.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 87.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked Yes | 19c | 84.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…09a6backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…399ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 20c | 68.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 46c | 65.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 47.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…5f63backed No | 65c | 44.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 37c | 35.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 65c | 34.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…0bebbacked No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…c872backed Yes | 34c | 32.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 80c | 32.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 48c | 31.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 35c | 30.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 30.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed No | 70c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 45c | 27.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed No | 68c | 25.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 66c | 24.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 69c | 24.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 72c | 16.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed No | 78c | 14.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.