Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa98933e8807bf6589cd7f2c0d13a316d2b135d9224f717a3f1fa37aae97200a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc97d…9f1abacked Yes | 0c | 5,180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 2c | 4,808$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 1c | 2,434$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71b…cb2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,244$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 4c | 2,112$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,095$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 2,038$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,030$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,718$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 2c | 1,717$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…6611backed Yes | 4c | 1,615$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 1,516$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,510$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…89e9backed Yes | 2c | 1,270$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 1,257$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 1c | 1,243$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 2c | 1,124$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…d440backed Yes | 1c | 1,023$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe72…dba8backed Yes | 1c | 914.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 892.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 2c | 880$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 3c | 603.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 2c | 589.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 306.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…f147backed Yes | 5c | 248.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.