Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47cf273dce7993f3137b505cc706133ce040043940805a4062fddf8b4163a09d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,882 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,812$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 1,028$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6970…9b2ebacked Yes | 4c | 778.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 8c | 716.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 11c | 681.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 7c | 593.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 3c | 574.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb71b…cb2fbacked Yes | 3c | 569.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 3c | 465.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 21c | 423.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda65…c7aebacked Yes | 15c | 410.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked Yes | 12c | 373.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 10c | 368$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 326.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b7…85b2backed Yes | 4c | 319.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 310.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…4e10backed Yes | 6c | 303.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 8c | 299.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 299.37$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 289.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff2…277dbacked Yes | 4c | 265.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 7c | 262.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe72…dba8backed Yes | 4c | 230.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 14c | 228.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 6c | 200.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22c…76febacked Yes | 8c | 198.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 17c | 171.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 140.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 25c | 139.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…0383backed Yes | 16c | 121.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 20c | 116.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 111.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…6dc9backed Yes | 16c | 104$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3882…2729backed Yes | 27c | 103.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked Yes | 16c | 102.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0c8dbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 11c | 99.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 14c | 73.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 16c | 69.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…34b0backed Yes | 22c | 63.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…9209backed Yes | 30c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 70c | 50.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…25f7backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…7ff6backed Yes | 31c | 48.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…55a2backed Yes | 26c | 47.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 77c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 80c | 34.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 76c | 21.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 66c | 19.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 75c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed No | 77c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.