Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77f3d311a0f076286d91c2cacbf7bbddc9a5111429bbc8fa3567592d6a8630d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 8c | 3,689$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.05 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 36c | 3,089$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.79 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 2,131$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 75c | 1,472$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.09 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 9c | 1,117$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 12c | 728.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.56 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 45c | 513.43$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.86 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 489.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 480.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 5c | 475.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 457.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.3 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 443$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 3c | 374.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 368$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.06 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 7c | 337.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…e6a1backed No | 40c | 334.61$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 43c | 299.93$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.39 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 20c | 294.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.06 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 13c | 284.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.28 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 255$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.09 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 239.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed No | 5c | 233.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 226.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…f0dcbacked No | 5c | 221.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 209$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 6c | 200.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.14 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 10c | 200.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.65 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 18c | 196.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 12c | 189.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.77 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 13c | 161.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.9 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 11c | 150.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 22c | 137.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 135.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 118.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 20c | 111.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e4…a3b4backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +549.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 106.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 100.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.31 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…3421backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +401.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 94.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 12c | 92.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb279…a17ebacked Yes | 15c | 89.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +221.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 21c | 86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6903backed Yes | 14c | 75.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 70c | 68.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 63.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 53.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 78c | 50.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…1b6ebacked No | 65c | 25.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e0…b967backed No | 74c | 17.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 79c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.