Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba744f5e6bc3cd6e1de330f1fd44e3b49a3ab6289bf3651b839030739e734f04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,658$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 22c | 687.49$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 4c | 499.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 2c | 455.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 368$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 72c | 366.61$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 322.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 14c | 309.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 302.22$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 289.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 10c | 272.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 255.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 15c | 235.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 5c | 218.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 207.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 18c | 200.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 23c | 174.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 29c | 167.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45eb…20cdbacked Yes | 15c | 166.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…8d55backed Yes | 30c | 141$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 13c | 140.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 138.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…c15dbacked Yes | 24c | 128$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…039abacked Yes | 22c | 118.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…9baabacked Yes | 24c | 114$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c99…2592backed Yes | 26c | 112$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 14c | 99.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 97.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 95.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc61…83d8backed Yes | 24c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e8…8513backed Yes | 15c | 92.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…1d6fbacked Yes | 24c | 92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 12c | 90.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 33c | 89.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 14c | 86.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 26c | 78.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes | 26c | 76.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…25a1backed Yes | 15c | 71.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…271cbacked No | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6903backed Yes | 26c | 59.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9f…bf5ebacked No | 76c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c55…e0a2backed No | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 69c | 48.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6a…151fbacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a9…0d6cbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…a9d4backed No | 74c | 43.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b0…4650backed No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 38.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e9…732cbacked No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 69c | 37.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xebd2…d7fdbacked No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…e0b5backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…5024backed No | 73c | 34.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 33.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb910…ac48backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 29.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 72c | 29.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…7cbabacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe644…c5b8backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…73a2backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 71c | 25.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b8…d8b5backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…0616backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 64c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 20.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c83…de2dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…da8abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…622abacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…f399backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d11…71a2backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed No | 70c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.